DP7873 Country-specific goal-scoring in the "dying-seconds" of international football matches

Author(s): Jan C van Ours , Martin Van Tuijl

Publication Date: June 2010

Keyword(s): football , goal-scoring , national team matches

JEL(s): J44

Programme Areas: Labour Economics

Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP7873.asp.asp

This paper investigates whether there are country-specific characteristics in goal-scoring in the final stage of important international football matches. We examine goal-scoring from 1960 onwards in full 'A' international matches of six national teams: Belgium, Brazil, England, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. We analyze qualifying matches for the European Championship and World Cup and the matches at the final tournaments of these two events, the Copa America and the Confederations Cup. We find that the national teams of Germany, England and the Netherlands are more likely than the three other national teams to score in the last minute -- including stoppage time. However, for Germans this comes at a cost. Germany is more likely to concede a goal in the dying seconds of a match than other countries. During our period of analysis, the national teams of Brazil and Italy only conceded one goal in the last minute. As to winning penalty shootouts, Germany outperforms the other five countries.