DP7176 On the Statistical Identification of DSGE Models

Author(s): Agostino Consolo , Carlo A Favero , Alessia Paccagnini

Publication Date: February 2009

Keyword(s): Bayesian analysis , Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model , Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression , Model evaluation

JEL(s): C11 , C52

Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics

Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP7176.asp.asp

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are now considered attractive by the profession not only from the theoretical perspective but also from an empirical standpoint. As a consequence of this development, methods for diagnosing the fit of these models are being proposed and implemented. In this article we illustrate how the concept of statistical identification, that was introduced and used by Spanos(1990) to criticize traditional evaluation methods of Cowles Commission models, could be relevant for DSGE models. We conclude that the recently proposed model evaluation method, based on the DSGE-VAR(ë), might not satisfy the condition for statistical identification. However, our application also shows that the adoption of a FAVAR as a statistically identified benchmark leaves unaltered the support of the data for the DSGE model and that a DSGE-FAVAR can be an optimal forecasting model.