DP7101 The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence

Author(s): Timothy J. Besley , Torsten Persson

Publication Date: December 2008

Keyword(s): commodity prices , conflict , natural resources , political institutions

JEL(s): D74 , F52 , O11 , Q34

Programme Areas: Development Economics , International Macroeconomics , Public Policy

Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP7101.asp.asp

This paper studies the incidence of civil war over time. We put forward a canonical model of civil war, which relates the incidence of conflict to circumstances, institutions and features of the underlying economy and polity. We use this model to derive testable predictions and to interpret the cross-sectional and times-series variations in civil conflict. Our most novel empirical finding is that higher world market prices of exported, as well as imported, commodities are strong and significant predictors of higher within-country incidence of civil war.