DP6447 Does a 'Two-Pillar Phillips Curve' Justify a Two-Pillar Monetary Policy Strategy?

Author(s): Michael Woodford

Publication Date: September 2007

Keyword(s): band-pass regression , ECB monetary policy strategy , monetarism

JEL(s): E52 , E58

Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics

Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP6447.asp.asp

Arguments for a prominent role for attention to the growth rate of monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy are often based on references to low-frequency reduced-form relationships between money growth and inflation. The 'two-pillar Phillips curve' proposed by Gerlach (2004) has recently attracted a great deal of interest in the euro area, where it is sometimes supposed to provide empirical support for the wisdom of a 'two-pillar strategy' that uses distinct analytical frameworks to assess shorter-run and longer-run risks to price stability. I show, however, that regression coefficients of the kind reported by Assenmacher-Wesche and Gerlach (2006a) among others are quite consistent with a 'new Keynesian' model of inflation determination, in which the quantity of money plays no role in inflation determination, at either high or low frequencies. I also show that empirical results of this kind do not in themselves establish that money growth must be useful in forecasting inflation, either in the short run or over a longer run. Hence they provide little support for the ECB's monetary 'pillar'.