DP5956 New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure

Author(s): Geert Bekaert , Seonghoon Cho , Antonio Moreno

Publication Date: November 2006

Keyword(s): monetary policy , inflation target , term structure of interest rates , Phillips curve

JEL(s): E31 , E32 , E43 , E52 , G12

Programme Areas: Financial Economics

Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP5956.asp.asp

This article complements the structural New-Keynesian macro framework with a no-arbitrage affine term structure model. Whereas our methodology is general, we focus on an extended macro-model with unobservable processes for the inflation target and the natural rate of output which are filtered from macro and term structure data. We find that term structure information helps generate large and significant estimates of the Phillips curve and real interest rate response parameters. Our model also delivers strong contemporaneous responses of the entire term structure to various macroeconomic shocks. The inflation target dominates the variation in the 'level factor' whereas monetary policy shocks dominate the variation in the 'slope and curvature factors'.