DP5684 The Economic Importance of Fiscal Rules

Author(s): Michael J Artis , Luca Onorante

Publication Date: May 2006

Keyword(s): European Monetary Union , Stability and Growth Pact , fiscal-monetary interactions

JEL(s): E61 , E62 , E63

Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics

Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP5684.asp

The paper provides an assessment of the effect of the recent revision of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) on the European economies. A set of structural VARs, one for each Eurozone country, is estimated. The estimated models are then used to assess the possible effect of alternative sets of fiscal rules, with particular attention to the SGP in its old and reformed versions. The results suggest that fiscal policy has had in the past a limited smoothing effect on the cycle and therefore the cost of the old rules in the “corrective” arm of the Pact was also limited. As for the reform of the Pact the analysis is overall supportive of the new country-specific Medium term Objectives. The modified rules of the excessive deficit procedure are likely to give governments only a limited extra leeway to reduce the variability of the cycle.