DP3981 Business Cycles, the Current Account and Administered Protection in Mexico

Author(s): Joseph Francois , Gunnar Niels

Publication Date: July 2003

Keyword(s):

JEL(s): F10 , F13

Programme Areas: International Trade and Regional Economics

Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP3981.asp

Antidumping actions in the United States and EU are known to be linked to macroeconomic conditions. In part, this is because positive injury findings may be easier to make in a downturn. We explore the evidence for Mexico, one of the main ‘new’ antidumping-using countries. Injury determination is also critical in Mexico’s antidumping policy, as a majority of unsuccessful complaints have been rejected because of negative injury findings rather than negative findings of dumping. Working with data from 1987 through 2000, we provide evidence for a relationship between macro-economic factors and antidumping complaints, including current account and exchange rate movements, and both local and global general macroeconomic conditions.