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DP2768 Exchange Rate Systems and Macroeconomic Stability

Author(s): Fabrice Collard , Harris Dellas
Publication Date: April 2001
Keyword(s): Flexible Exchange Rate , Unilateral Exchange Rate Pegging , Monetary Union , International Business Cycle Transmission , Taylor Rules
JEL(s): E32
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics
Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP2768.asp


We examine macroeconomic stability and the properties of the international transmission of business cycles under three exchange rate systems: a flexible, a unilateral peg and a single currency. The subjects of study are Germany and France. EMU increases output and decreases inflation variability in Germany but it has the opposite effect in France. It induces a strong negative international transmission of country specific supply shocks and amplifies the role of German supply shocks. These two facts may complicate ECB policy-making.

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