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DP2292 UK Phillips Curves and Monetary Policy

Author(s): Andrew Haldane , Danny Quah
Publication Date: November 1999
Keyword(s): Beliefs , Inflation , Natural Rate Hypothesis , Stability
JEL(s): C22 , C23 , E31 , E32
Programme Areas: International Macroeconomics
Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP2292.asp


This paper documents some stylized facts on evolving UK Phillips curves, and shows how these differ from their US versions. We interpret UK Phillips curve dynamics in a positive theory of monetary policy - how policy-maker attitudes on the Phillips curve have evolved since the 1950s - rather than, more traditionally, as interaction between exogenous demand and supply disturbances. Combining this framework with reasoned conjectures on how policy-makers' beliefs have changed helps explain some features of the evolving UK Phillips curve. We suggest that correlations suggesting an extreme favourable unemployment-inflation tradeoff might indicate not something to be exploited but instead only policy-makers' correctly acknowledging that no tradeoff exists.

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