DP1482 Distribution of Export Price Risk in a Developing Country

Author(s): François Bourguignon , Sylvie Lambert , Akiko Suwa Eisenmann

Publication Date: September 1996

Keyword(s): Computable General Equilibrium Models , Distribution of Risk , International Trade

JEL(s): D39 , D58 , O11

Programme Areas: International Trade and Regional Economics

Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP1482.asp

We address the issue of social distribution of an aggregate risk (on agricultural export price), from a macroeconomic perspective. Individual incomes in representative social groups are computed as a function of export prices, which are assumed to be stochastic, using an applied general equilibrium model of an archetype developing economy. The statistical properties of the resulting distribution of individual incomes are then examined. We consider a mapping of different policies on agricultural prices (stabilization or complete pass-through), monetary rules (accommodating or not) and exchange rate regimes (fixed versus flexible).