DP7673 An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area
Author(s):	Domenico Giannone, Jérôme Henry, Magdalena Lalik, Michele Modugno
Programme Area: IM
Keyword(s): real-time, euro area, revisions, database
Abstract: This paper describes how we constructed a real-time database for the euro area covering more than 200 series regularly published in the European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, as made available ahead of publication to the Governing Council members before their first meeting of the month. We describe the database in details and study the properties of the euro area real-time data flow and data revisions, also providing comparisons with the United States and Japan. We finally illustrate how such revisions can contribute to the uncertainty surrounding key macroeconomic ratios and the NAIRU.
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DP7672 The Political Resource Curse
Author(s):	Fernanda Brollo, Tommaso Nannicini, Roberto Perotti, Guido Tabellini
Programme Area: DE, PP
Keyword(s): corruption, government spending, political selection
Abstract: The paper studies the effect of additional government revenues on political corruption and on the quality of politicians, both with theory and data. The theory is based on a version of the career concerns model of political agency with endogenous entry of political candidates. The evidence refers to municipalities in Brazil, where federal transfers to municipal governments change exogenously according to given population thresholds. We exploit a regression discontinuity design to test the implications of the theory and identify the causal effect of larger federal transfers on political corruption and the observed features of political candidates at the municipal level. In accordance with the predictions of the theory, we find that larger transfers increase political corruption and reduce the quality of candidates for mayor.
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DP7671 Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles
Author(s):	Marco Aiolfi, Luis A. V. Catão, Allan G Timmermann
Programme Area: FE
Keyword(s): factor models, International business cycles, Latin America
Abstract: We develop a common factor approach to reconstruct new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico ("LAC-4") from an unprecedentedly comprehensive dataset spanning 135 years. We establish the robustness of our indices through a variety of tests, use the indices to explore business cycle properties in LAC-4 and compare them with other countries across outward- and inward-looking policy regimes. We find that output persistence in LAC-4 has been consistently high across regimes, whereas volatility was strikingly high during the pre-1929 outward-looking regime but declined during the most recent shift towards greater openness. We also find a sizeable common regional factor driven by output and interest rates in advanced countries, including during inward-looking regimes
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DP7669 Monetary policy in exceptional times
Author(s):	Michele Lenza, Huw Pill, Lucrezia Reichlin
Programme Area: IM
Keyword(s): monetary policy, quantitative easing
Abstract: This paper describes the way in which the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England conducted monetary policy since the beginning of the financial crisis, in August 2007. We argue that both quantitative easing - and the other non-standard measures introduced by central banks that changed the composition of the asset side of their balance sheets (so-called "qualitative easing") - acted mainly through their effects on interest rates and, in particular, on money market spreads, rather than solely through "quantity effects" in terms of the money supply. We perform a quantitative exercise on the euro area which estimates the effect of the reduction of these spreads to the broader economy.
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DP7668 Trade Liberalization and Heterogeneous Firm Models: An Evaluation Using the Canada - US Free Trade Agreement
Author(s):	Holger Breinlich, Alejandro Cuñat
Programme Area: IT
Keyword(s): Heterogeneous Firm Models, Model Evaluation, Trade Liberalization
Abstract: We examine the qualitative and quantitative predictions of a heterogeneous firm model à la Melitz (2003) in the context of the Canada - US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) of 1989. We calibrate our model to the pre-trade liberalization stage, simulate the trade liberalization, and compute the resulting growth rates of Canadian industry productivity, exports and imports. We compare them with Trefler's (2004) estimates of the effects of CUSFTA. Our results show that our model performs well in replicating the qualitative aspects of Trefler's results. In particular, we correctly predict that US tariff cuts have smaller productivity enhancing effects than Canadian tariff reductions due to the entry of less efficient exporters. Quantitatively, the model tends to underpredict the impact of CUSFTA on growth rates of productivity, but overpredicts the increase in Canadian exports and imports. We discuss how liberalization-induced changes in the firm-level productivity distribution can reconcile the model with the evidence.
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DP7667 Rotten Kids with Bad Intentions
Author(s):	Nick Netzer, Armin Schmutzler
Programme Area: IO. LE
Keyword(s): Gift Giving, Moral Hazard, Psychological Games, Reciprocity
Abstract: We examine a "Rotten Kid" model (Becker 1974) where a player with social preferences interacts with an egoistic player. We assume that social preferences are intention-based rather than outcome-based. In a very general multi-stage setting we show that any equilibrium must involve mutually unkind behavior of both players, endogenously generating negative emotions rather than positive altruism. In a large class of two-stage games that includes principal-agent and gift-giving games, this prevents equilibrium from being materially Pareto efficient. Compared to the subgame-perfect equilibrium without social preferences, efficiency is still generally increased. On the other hand, the materialistic player has lower whereas the reciprocal player has higher material payoffs, so that reciprocity does not increase equity: For sufficiently strong reciprocity concerns, the materialistic player ends up with a negligible share of the gains from trade.
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DP7666 The 2008 Financial Crisis and Taxation Policy
Author(s):	Thomas Hemmelgarn, Gaetan Nicodeme
Programme Area: PP
Keyword(s): Financial crisis, financial transaction tax, property tax, stimulus, taxation
Abstract: The 2008 financial crisis is the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of 1929. It has been characterised by a housing bubble in a context of rapid credit expansion, high risk-taking and exacerbated financial leverage, leading to deleveraging and credit crunch when the bubble burst. This paper discusses the interactions between tax policy and the financial crisis. In particular, it reviews the existing evidence on the links between taxes and many characteristics of the crisis. Finally, it examines some possible future tax options to prevent such crises.
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DP7665 Fiscal Centralization and the Political Process
Author(s):	Facundo Albornoz-Crespo, Antonio Cabrales
Programme Area:	PP
Keyword(s): centralization, corruption, decentralization, political agency, quality of politicians
Abstract: We study the dynamic support for fiscal decentralization in a political agency model from the perspective of a region. We show that corruption opportunities are lower under centralization at each period of time. However, centralization makes more difficult for citizens to detect corrupt incumbents. Thus, corruption is easier under centralization for low levels of political competition. We show that the relative advantage of centralization depends negatively on the quality of the local political class, but it is greater if the center and the region are subject to similar government productivity shocks. When we endogenize the quality of local politicians, we establish a positive link between the development of the private sector and the support for decentralization. Since political support to centralization evolves over time, driven either by economic/political development or by exogenous changes in preferences over public good consumption, it is possible that voters are (rationally) discontent about it. Also, preferences of voters and the politicians about centralization can diverge when political competition is weak.
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Total Papers listed: 8