Persistent high unemployment plagues Europe but there is little
agreement on the appropriate solution. A new CEPR volume provides a
balanced assessment of the options available to European policy-makers.
Over the past two decades, European unemployment has moved relentlessly
upwards. Some economists view the problem as a result of skill-biased
technological change, the expansion of international trade or changes in
the organization of firms in the presence of frictions in the labour
market.
Others focus on the market power of employees, supported by union
actions and labour turnover costs. Still others concentrate on wage
formation under asymmetric information. And yet others argue that since
wages and prices are often sluggish, a drop in spending might create
unemployment of the Keynesian kind.
In view of these fragmented perspectives, policy-makers seem to have
become increasingly disillusioned by unemployment theory. Consequently,
their policies often rest more heavily on political instinct than on
rigorous economic analysis.
In turn, many academic economists in the field appear to have
retreated to their ivory towers. Their work is often analytically
rigorous but the policy conclusions are sometimes little more than vague
pronouncements, afterthoughts tucked away in the concluding sections.
A new CEPR volume attempts to swim against this tide. In it, leading
contributors to the unemployment literature explain their positions in
easily accessible terms without sacrificing intellectual rigour. The
result is a lucid picture of the policy instruments available for
combating unemployment and a reasoned assessment of their effectiveness.
In many important respects, countries with high unemployment – both
in Europe and elsewhere in the OECD – face a number of common
problems:
- how to create new employment opportunities without reducing
existing ones;
- how to promote more equal employment opportunities for those out
of work, targeting both the short- and long-term unemployed, and
both young people entering the labour force and older employees who
have been laid off;
- how to create more skilled, relatively well-paid jobs and how to
promote the education and training necessary for such jobs;
- how to encourage the private sector to adapt its jobs promptly in
response to changes in market conditions;
- and how to avoid the need for large and expensive government
programmes.
Different countries have dealt with these problems in very different
ways. Some have concentrated on supply-side policies in an attempt to
improve the productivity of their workforce. Others have relied more on
demand management policies. Still others have offered subsidies for the
creation of jobs. And yet others have experimented with changes to
labour market institutions designed to create more employment
opportunities.
Considering the diversity in economic institutions and policy goals
from country to country, this disparity in policy approaches is hardly
surprising. What is surprising, however, is that existing policies are
generally not responses to specific diagnoses of why unemployment has
arisen, where the resulting inefficiencies and inequities lie, and which
measures can tackle these problems without creating another set of
potentially even more serious inefficiencies and inequities.
Recently, for example, policy-makers in some European countries have
shifted their attention to the task of spreading the cost of
unemployment across the population through job-sharing and early
retirement programmes. The implicit underlying assessment is that the
existing unemployment is inevitable and that unemployment policy should
aim only to redistribute the resulting hardship.
But such an assessment is at variance with the analysis of many
economists, who propose measures for creating more jobs with more
satisfying career prospects. It is often apparent that policy is
formulated and designed in isolation from the best current economic
thinking.
What’s more, policy-makers are often unaware of the full range of
policy instruments that can be used to create employment and thereby
promote competitiveness, social solidarity and growth. Different
countries have tended to focus on different groups of measures, but the
policy choice is often not grounded in a full understanding of the range
of options.
These include demand management policies, productivity-enhancing
supply-side policies, wage subsidies, recruitment vouchers, training
subsidies, policies to make more credit available to unskilled workers,
reductions in payroll taxes, government employment and training
programmes, changes in job security legislation, reform of unemployment
benefit and welfare systems, reform of wage bargaining systems, negative
income taxes and basic income guarantees. Each of these policy options
is covered in the CEPR volume.
The book also demonstrates that one major cause of unemployment is
unemployment policy itself. Frequently, policies designed to combat
unemployment or the effects of unemployment – ranging from
unemployment benefits and other welfare state entitlements to job
security legislation to tax and transfer systems – introduce
inefficiencies that serve to increase unemployment.
Many informed observers believe that unemployment could be reduced by
changing policy design so as to give firms more incentive to take on
employees and unemployed people more incentive to search for jobs –
all without necessarily increasing the government’s budgetary outlay
or ignoring the realities of the political process. The CEPR volume
offers a balanced and rigorous assessment of this approach.