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European
Economic Perspectives 1
October 1993
Anchors
Away
With European monetary policies adrift, we launch a
new forum for policy research, starting with diagnosis and remedies for
monetary disorder.
CEPR has stressed communicating policy–relevant economic research
authoritatively to a high level audience. The CEPR Bulletin, our
'publication record', has grown with our activities. As the Centre
enters its second decade we intend to build on this strength, to reach a
wider audience: policy-makers in the private and public sectors. European
Economic Perspectives, will present highlights of the Centre's
research in a `user-friendly' form.
We shall normally carry a mix of articles on different topics both
research results and feature. Our first issue, however, focuses on the
threat to the European Community from the monetary muddle. The
implications are as important outside Europe as within it.
CEPR is the market leader in research on the EMS and EMU, here some
of the key contributors to that work provide both diagnoses and
prescriptions. The EMS crisis matters for economic union, according to
Alan Winters: the Single Market programme, and the Common Agricultural
Policy rely on currency stability. Floating rates will stimulate
protectionism and disintegration. Monetary disorder may slow EC
enlargement – David Begg suggests that members will become less
enthusiastic about admitting EFTA applicants. On the positive side,
Alberto Alessina and Vittorio Grilli argue that the turmoil could force
Europe's leaders to confront the difficult issues of European that they
have so far ducked. Even if they do, there is no easy way forward for
the EMS. Perspectives offers two contrasting prescriptions. Jürgen
von Hagen proposes a two-tier ERM as the route to EMU. Barry Eichengreen
and Charles Wyplosz support controls on speculation through margin
requirements on open foreign exchange positions.
If policy–makers had paid attention to what economic researchers
had said before and since September 1992, events might have been
different. But whatever the justification for `we told you so', that
(rightly) is not what policy–makers want to hear. It is nevertheless
disappointing that they are unwilling to recognize the continuing
sources of instability that led to the second shock in August. The first
issue of European Economic Perspectives offers insights into the
sources of this instability, the dangers it presents to Europe and some
possible forward for the Community.
Richard Portes
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