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European Economic Perspectives 1
October 1993

Anchors Away

With European monetary policies adrift, we launch a new forum for policy research, starting with diagnosis and remedies for monetary disorder.

CEPR has stressed communicating policy–relevant economic research authoritatively to a high level audience. The CEPR Bulletin, our 'publication record', has grown with our activities. As the Centre enters its second decade we intend to build on this strength, to reach a wider audience: policy-makers in the private and public sectors. European Economic Perspectives, will present highlights of the Centre's research in a `user-friendly' form.

We shall normally carry a mix of articles on different topics both research results and feature. Our first issue, however, focuses on the threat to the European Community from the monetary muddle. The implications are as important outside Europe as within it.

CEPR is the market leader in research on the EMS and EMU, here some of the key contributors to that work provide both diagnoses and prescriptions. The EMS crisis matters for economic union, according to Alan Winters: the Single Market programme, and the Common Agricultural Policy rely on currency stability. Floating rates will stimulate protectionism and disintegration. Monetary disorder may slow EC enlargement – David Begg suggests that members will become less enthusiastic about admitting EFTA applicants. On the positive side, Alberto Alessina and Vittorio Grilli argue that the turmoil could force Europe's leaders to confront the difficult issues of European that they have so far ducked. Even if they do, there is no easy way forward for the EMS. Perspectives offers two contrasting prescriptions. Jürgen von Hagen proposes a two-tier ERM as the route to EMU. Barry Eichengreen and Charles Wyplosz support controls on speculation through margin requirements on open foreign exchange positions.

If policy–makers had paid attention to what economic researchers had said before and since September 1992, events might have been different. But whatever the justification for `we told you so', that (rightly) is not what policy–makers want to hear. It is nevertheless disappointing that they are unwilling to recognize the continuing sources of instability that led to the second shock in August. The first issue of European Economic Perspectives offers insights into the sources of this instability, the dangers it presents to Europe and some possible forward for the Community.

Richard Portes

 

 

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