A comparison with the US labour market reveals the institutions that
may be responsible for France’s relatively high rates of unemployment.
The ‘moneyless America, jobless Europe’ description of
transatlantic labour market differences is well-known and well
documented: while US inequalities rose dramatically during the 1980s,
the average unemployment rate remained fairly stable. Over the same
period, exactly the opposite happened in France: wage dispersion
remained fairly stable while unemployment rates almost quadrupled.
Many economists argue that this sharp difference in the employment
performance of the two economies is due to institutional rigidities in
the French labour market, notably the minimum wage, unemployment
benefits and employment protection legislation. In particular, it is
often said that French unemployment is tough on young workers who, in
seeking to enter the labour market for the first time, suffer from
‘outsider’ effects. It is also argued that low-wage unemployed
workers in France are disadvantaged by the minimum wage.
A recent Economic Policy paper by Daniel Cohen, Arnaud Lefranc
and Gilles Saint-Paul tests the validity of these claims by comparing
the unemployment record of French and US workers. Are low-wage workers
suffering relatively more in France than in the United States?, they
ask. Do young French workers find it more difficult to find a job? If
not, then their poor labour market outcomes may not be caused by
institutional rigidities or the behaviour of the unemployed, but by more
fundamental features of the French economy.
The research shows that transatlantic differences in unemployment
rates are especially acute for young and old workers, but appear to be
negligible for middle-aged workers. There are, however, major
differences in the pattern of job flows in the two countries: unemployed
French workers take five times longer than their US counterparts to find
new jobs (the ‘hiring’ rate); at the same time, the French are five
times less likely to become unemployed (the ‘separation’ rate).
There are two possible explanations for these differences. One is
that wage rigidity makes it impossible for French firms to offer the
quantity of jobs available from US firms. The other is that a low rate
of separations arises from high firing costs, which in turn depress
labour demand.
The authors investigate the pattern of wage adjustment in the two
countries. They find that the wage profiles of ‘displaced’ workers
(employed people who have recently been unemployed) are actually quite
similar: in each country, their wage loss or ‘discount’ is about 10%
when entering new jobs. These results, the authors believe, can be
interpreted as the equilibrium outcome of two economies in which workers
optimally set their wages of entry. While wage rigidity reduces the
discount in France, the much lower hiring rate makes workers less picky
about new jobs, increasing the discount.
Removing such sources of wage rigidity as minimum wages and generous
unemployment benefits would reduce unemployment, the authors agree. But
it would also lead to excessive wage losses for displaced workers –
much higher than for their US counterparts. Hence wage rigidity is not
as central as is usually argued in explaining the US-Europe
differential. Instead, the key causes of the difference between the two
labour markets are the low hiring and separation rates. These arise from
employment protection legislation.
If most of the difference between French and US hiring rates comes
from firing costs, what explains the rise in French unemployment after
1973? Firing costs did increase in the late 1960s and early 1970s, but
they were always higher in France than in the US. For example, the
average unemployed worker waited nine months before getting a job in the
France of 1970, compared to 13 months today.
In the end, the difference between the early 1970s (when French
unemployment stood at 2% of the workforce) and the early 1990s (when it
rose above 10%) can be ascribed to the general slowdown in global
economic growth. Nevertheless, the authors conclude, a large part of the
difference between French and US unemployment is attributable to an
ever-present difference in attitudes towards separation.
These findings are useful in evaluating a number of the policies
advocated as a cure for French unemployment. For example, it is often
argued that the young deserve special attention because of their high
unemployment rate. But short-term contracts have been implemented in
France as a response to the demand for ‘flexibility’ in the economy,
while protecting middle-aged workers. The key to youth unemployment is
not that they suffer from high unemployment duration (they fare better
than other groups), but that they suffer from a much higher separation
rate. The young are part of the dual labour market that French
regulations have created.
The analysis also reveals that one group of French workers suffers
much more than its US counterpart: the ‘old’ workers (those over 50
years old), whose hiring rates for the least educated among them are up
to 30 times lower than the in US. Although this group is less visible
because their numbers are lower, they are the people most badly hurt by
the system.
Which labour market institutions are most harmful and should be
removed? Cohen and his colleagues find little evidence of unemployment
arising from wage rigidity, and the minimum wage seems to matter only
for the least educated youth. Firing costs, in contrast, seem to depress
the demand for labour substantially, particularly for uneducated labour.
How might these costs be reduced? One way, cutting severance
payments, would be politically unpopular. But such reductions could be
offset by an equivalent increase (in terms of present discounted value)
in unemployment benefits, which seem to have little impact on
unemployment. Another possibility is that the legal and administrative
costs of firing might be reduced without cutting the level of
comp<%-3>e<%0>nsation.
This article reviews research reported in ‘French Unemployment: A
Transatlantic Perspective’ by Daniel Cohen, Arnaud Lefranc and Gilles
Saint-Paul, published in Economic Policy 25 (October 1997). Cohen
is at CEPREMAP, Paris; Lefranc at DELTA, Paris, and the University Paris
X; and Saint-Paul at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona. Cohen is
Programme Co-Director and Saint-Paul a Research Fellow in CEPR’s
International Macroeconomics programme.