EuroCOIN Shows Continued Stagnation in Euro Area

The latest value of the EuroCOIN indicator released by CEPR shows:

• In September, the cyclical economic growth of the euro area GDP measured by CEPR’s EuroCOIN indicator increased slightly to 0.404 from 0.355 in August (three months percentage changes).

• From December 2001 throughout the first quarter of the current year EuroCOIN showed early signs of a cyclical expansion. In April and May it stabilized; whereas in June it started to give signals of a clear decline, subsequently confirmed in the following months.

• In September, the indicator marks a slight improvement for the first time since April. The signal, however, is too weak to indicate that the deceleration of the last five months has ended.

• A more detailed analysis of the components shows that positive signals originate from some industrial production sub-indexes while the indications from survey data continue to be negative. Overall, the picture is still characterized by a high degree of uncertainty.

Notes for Editors:

CEPR is an international network of 600 Research Fellows based mainly in Europe, who collaborate through the Centre in research and its dissemination. CEPR helps its Research Fellows to develop projects, obtain their funding, administer them and disseminate their results. The Centre's research ranges from open economy macroeconomics to trade policy, from the economic transformation of Central and Eastern Europe to regionalism in the world economy.

Who produces the Indicator? EuroCOIN monthly by CEPR and constructed by a team of academic researchers associated with CEPR. The team comprises: Filippo Altissimo (Banca d'Italia and CEPR), Antonio Bassanetti (Banca d'Italia),Riccardo Christadoro (Banca d'Italia), Mario Forni (Universita di Modena and CEPR), Marc Hellin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Marco Lippi (Universita di Roma), Lucrezia Reichlin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Giovanni Veronese (Banca d'Italia)

Contact Information:

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For more information: http://www.cepr.org/data/eurocoin