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Euro Area Outlook Uncertain But Worst Fears Not Confirmed

The latest value of the EuroCOIN indicator released by CEPR shows:

  • Euro area business cycle conditions remain largely stable this month. EuroCOIN has fallen slightly from a quarterly rate of 0.353 in September to a rate of 0.326 in October.

  • The new estimates from EuroCOIN confirm, with minimal revisions, what was suggested by the preliminary figures published last month: the Euro area economy, after a clear deceleration of growth in June, July and August, has not given a clear signal of a continuation of the slowdown or a reversal of the decline in growth. Growth rates are stable and still positive, but below the 1986-2002 average.

  • The slight decrease in cyclical growth observed this month is explained by the industrial production and labour variables used to construct the index. The signal from surveys and financial variables, typically considered as leading indicators, has improved with respect to last month, but the contribution of surveys as a whole to the index remains negative.

Notes for Editors:

CEPR is an international network of 600 Research Fellows based mainly in Europe, who collaborate through the Centre in research and its dissemination. CEPR helps its Research Fellows to develop projects, obtain their funding, administer them and disseminate their results. The Centre's research ranges from open economy macroeconomics to trade policy, from the economic transformation of Central and Eastern Europe to regionalism in the world economy.

Who produces the Indicator? EuroCOIN monthly by CEPR and constructed by a team of academic researchers associated with CEPR. The team comprises: Filippo Altissimo (Banca d'Italia and CEPR), Antonio Bassanetti (Banca d'Italia),Riccardo Christadoro (Banca d'Italia), Mario Forni (Universita di Modena and CEPR), Marc Hellin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Marco Lippi (Universita di Roma), Lucrezia Reichlin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Giovanni Veronese (Banca d'Italia)

Contact Information:

For interview requests and further information about CEPR please contact CEPR Press Officer Robbie Lonie, Tel: (44 020) 7878 2919, Mobile: 07740 519 225 or email rlonie@cepr.org

For more information: http://www.cepr.org/data/eurocoin

 
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