Euro Area Indicator Confirms Growth in Economic Activity

The latest value of the €COIN indicator released by CEPR this week: 

• Growth in the Euro Area rose substantially in February, and there is new evidence that industrial production is also strengthening. Newly available data have led to an upward revision of €COIN for December and January, and the indicator has moved into positive territory for January and February indicating growth in economic activity.

• €COIN monthly indicator, rose to 0.232 in February from a revised 0.075 in January. In February industrial production began to contribute to the rise in the indicator, suggesting that industrial production has now begun to recover in the Euro Area. Labour market variables have improved slightly, but are still negative.

• Between December 2000 and November 2001 €COIN fell and in September 2001 became negative for the first time since the end of 1995. In December 2001 the indicator showed an upturn, which is confirmed by the positive figures for January and February 2002.

• In August 2001, there were already signs that economic activity had levelled off after falling throughout the first half of 2001. The effects of September 11th led to a sharp fall in euro area growth in the months following the attack, prolonging the recession and delaying the first indications of positive growth until December.

Notes for Editors:

CEPR is a network of over 550 Research Fellows based throughout Europe, who collaborate through the Centre in research and its dissemination. CEPR helps its Research Fellows to develop projects, obtain their funding, administer them and disseminate their results. The Centre’s research ranges from open economy macroeconomics to trade policy, from the economic transformation of Central and Eastern Europe to regionalism in the world economy.

Who produces the Indicator? EuroCOIN is published on the 28^th of each month by CEPR and constructed by a team of academic researchers associated with CEPR.  The team comprises: Filippo Altissimo (Banca d'Italia and CEPR), Antonio Bassanetti (Banca d'Italia),Riccardo Christadoro (Banca d'Italia), Mario Forni (Universita di Modena and CEPR), Marc Hellin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Marco Lippi (Universita di Roma), Lucrezia Reichlin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Giovanni Veronese (Banca d'Italia)

Contact Information:

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For more information: http://www.cepr.org/data/eurocoin