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EuroCOIN Indicator Shows Economic Growth in Euro Area Slowing

The latest value of the EuroCOIN indicator released by CEPR shows:

  • The Euro Area economy showed positive growth for the seventh consecutive month in June. EuroCOIN figures for March, April and May were all revised upwards confirming the positive trend that began in December 2001. However, the figure for June - though provisional and to be interpreted with a degree of caution - signals a decrease in the rate of economic growth, falling from 0.647 in May to 0.624 in June. This signal is consistent with the positive but slower rate of economic growth for March, April and May.

  • The revised figures for EuroCOIN, including the figure for June showing slower growth, indicate that economic activity in the Euro Area is growing at approximately the same rate as the average for the last fifteen years. The contribution of surveys, industrial production, interest rates and financial variables are declining. Labour variables are still negative but improving slightly. With the exception of survey data the contribution of all of these variables are negative.

  • Between December 2000 and November 2001 EuroCOIN fell and in September 2001 became negative for the first time since the end of 1995. In December 2001 the indicator showed an upturn. This positive signal was confirmed by the positive figures for January, February, March, April and May 2002. However, since March the rise in rate of growth has declined, with the figure for June showing a decrease in the rate of economic growth.

  • Newly available data have led to upward revisions of EuroCOIN for March, April and May 2002. The upward trend rate for economic growth since December 2001 to May 2002 has been confirmed by the revised figures for EuroCOIN. 

Notes for Editors:

CEPR is an international network of 600 Research Fellows based mainly in Europe, who collaborate through the Centre in research and its dissemination. CEPR helps its Research Fellows to develop projects, obtain their funding, administer them and disseminate their results. The Centre's research ranges from open economy macroeconomics to trade policy, from the economic transformation of Central and Eastern Europe to regionalism in the world economy.

Who produces the Indicator? EuroCOIN monthly by CEPR and constructed by a team of academic researchers associated with CEPR. The team comprises: Filippo Altissimo (Banca d'Italia and CEPR), Antonio Bassanetti (Banca d'Italia),Riccardo Christadoro (Banca d'Italia), Mario Forni (Universita di Modena and CEPR), Marc Hellin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Marco Lippi (Universita di Roma), Lucrezia Reichlin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Giovanni Veronese (Banca d'Italia)

Contact Information:

For interview requests and further information about CEPR please contact CEPR Press Officer Robbie Lonie, Tel: (44 020) 7878 2919, Mobile: 07740 519 225 or email rlonie@cepr.org

For more information: http://www.cepr.org/data/eurocoin

 
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