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Decline of euro area business cycle conditions confirmed

The latest value of the EuroCOIN indicator released by CEPR shows:

  • The euro area business cycle conditions worsened in January. EuroCOIN(tm) decreased from a quarterly rate of 0.342 in December to a rate of 0.303 in January showing the third consecutive month of decline in cyclical growth. Although the rate of euro area growth has been positive since December 2002, the growth rate has been below the 1986-2002 average.

  • Euro area cyclical conditions since August 2001 can be described as follows. Cyclical growth started declining in August 2001, before the September 11th terrorist attack. It was negative from September to November when it reached a trough. From December 2001 to April 2002, the euro area had five months of positive and accelerating growth, but since then, cyclical growth stabilized and then declined. This decline was particularly strong in December 2002 and January 2003.

Notes for Editors:

CEPR is an international network of 600 Research Fellows based mainly in Europe, who collaborate through the Centre in research and its dissemination. CEPR helps its Research Fellows to develop projects, obtain their funding, administer them and disseminate their results. The Centre's research ranges from open economy macroeconomics to trade policy, from the economic transformation of Central and Eastern Europe to regionalism in the world economy.

Who produces the Indicator? EuroCOIN monthly by CEPR and constructed by a team of academic researchers associated with CEPR. The team comprises: Filippo Altissimo (Banca d'Italia and CEPR), Antonio Bassanetti (Banca d'Italia),Riccardo Christadoro (Banca d'Italia), Mario Forni (Universita di Modena and CEPR), Marc Hellin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Marco Lippi (Universita di Roma), Lucrezia Reichlin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Giovanni Veronese (Banca d'Italia)

Contact Information:

For interview requests and further information about CEPR please contact CEPR Press Officer Robbie Lonie, Tel: (44 020) 7878 2919, Mobile: 07740 519 225 or email rlonie@cepr.org

For more information: http://www.cepr.org/data/eurocoin

 
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