EuroCOIN Signals Slight Recovery in March

The latest value of the EuroCOIN™ indicator released by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) shows:

• In March 2003, the euro area economy showed signs of a slight acceleration. Growth of the cyclical component of GDP is positive and increasing, and just below the average of the period 1988-2002.

• CEPR's EuroCOIN(tm) indicator rose from 0.317 in January to 0.378 in February, and then to 0.478 in March 2003. Newly available data has led to very small revisions for December, January and February.

• Euro area cyclical conditions since August 2001 can be described as follows: cyclical growth began to decline in August 2001, before the September 11th terrorist attack. Growth was then negative from September to November when it reached a trough. From December 2001 to April 2002, the euro area had five months of positive and increasing growth, but since then, cyclical growth has fallen before stabilizing around a lower average growth rate.

Contact Information:

For interview requests and further information about CEPR please contact CEPR Press Officer Robbie Lonie, Tel: +44 (0) 20 7878 2919, Mobile: +44 (0) 7740519225 or email rlonie@cepr.org.

The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR): CEPR was founded in 1983, with the belief that policy decisions should be informed by sound economic analysis, based on fundamental theory. CEPR’s network of nearly 600 affiliated researchers, comprising the top economists in Europe and beyond, collaborate through the Centre to conduct research on issues affecting the European economy. CEPR secures and administers funding grants for researcher projects, and disseminates their results. The Centre’s wide-ranging research includes open economy macroeconomics, international trade, financial economics, labour economics, industrial organization, public policy, and economic institutions.

Who produces the Indicator? EuroCOIN is produced monthly by CEPR and constructed by a team of academic researchers associated with CEPR. The members of the EuroCOIN team are: Filippo Altissimo (Banca d'Italia and CEPR), Antonio Bassanetti (Banca d'Italia), Riccardo Christadoro (Banca d'Italia), Mario Forni (Universita di Modena and CEPR), Marc Hallin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Marco Lippi (Universita di Roma), Lucrezia Reichlin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Giovanni Veronese (Banca d'Italia)

For more information: http://www.cepr.org/data/eurocoin