The Euro Area Indicator Confirms the Positive Signal of Economic Growth

The latest value of the €COIN indicator released by CEPR this week: 

• The rate of growth in the Euro Area was rising in March. For the fourth month in a row, the Euro economy showed positive growth, confirming that there is a tendency to return to the historical average. This tendency, however, has been weaker in March than in February.  Like in the previous month, newly available data have led to an upward revision of €COIN for December, January, and for February, with a very small but positive growth rate for December.

• €COIN monthly indicator rose to 0.427 in March from revised 0.377 in February and 0.205 in January.   The positive contribution of industrial production to February rise is not confirmed in March. Labour market variables have improved slightly since February but are still negative.

• Between December 2000 and November 2001 €COIN fell and in September 2001 became negative for the first time since the end of 1995. In December 2001 the indicator showed an upturn, which is confirmed by the positive figures for January, February and March 2002. The arrival of new data has slightly changed the figures for previous months but has confirmed the dynamics presented by the indicator.

• In August 2001, there were already signs that economic activity had levelled off after falling throughout the first half of 2001. The effects of September 11th led to a sharp fall in Euro Area growth in the months following the attack, prolonging the recession and delaying the first indications of positive growth until December.

Notes for Editors:

CEPR is a network of 600 Research Fellows based throughout Europe, who collaborate through the Centre in research and its dissemination. CEPR helps its Research Fellows to develop projects, obtain their funding, administer them and disseminate their results. The Centre’s research ranges from open economy macroeconomics to trade policy, from the economic transformation of Central and Eastern Europe to regionalism in the world economy.

Who produces the Indicator? EuroCOIN is published on the 28^th of each month by CEPR and constructed by a team of academic researchers associated with CEPR.  The team comprises: Filippo Altissimo (Banca d'Italia and CEPR), Antonio Bassanetti (Banca d'Italia),Riccardo Christadoro (Banca d'Italia), Mario Forni (Universita di Modena and CEPR), Marc Hellin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Marco Lippi (Universita di Roma), Lucrezia Reichlin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Giovanni Veronese (Banca d'Italia)

Contact Information:

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For more information: http://www.cepr.org/data/eurocoin