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Asset Prices, Exchange Rates and
the Current Account

Marcel Fratzscher (ECB) Luciana Juvenal (University of Warwick) and Lucio Sarno (Warwick Business School).

Sylvester Eijffinger (right) awarding the CEPR/ESI 2007 Prize for the Best Central Bank Research Paper to Marcel Fratzscher of the ECB (left)

This paper was presented at the CEPR/ESI 11th Annual Conference on 'Global Imbalances, Competitiveness and Emerging Markets', at the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria, 28-29 September 2007. The paper was selected to win the 6th Annual Prize for the Best Central Bank Research Paper. The selection committee consisted of Sylvester Eijffinger (CentER Tilburg University, Erasmus University Rotterdam and CEPR) Brian Kahn (South African Reserve Bank), Kees Koedijk (Tilburg University and CEPR) and Eric Schaling (University of Pretoria).

Abstract of the paper: This paper analyses the role of asset prices in comparison to other factors, in particular exchange rates, as a driver of the US trade balance. It employs a Bayesian structural VAR model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically meaningful sign restrictions. We find that equity market shocks and housing price shocks have been major determinants of the US current account in the past, accounting for up to 32% of the movements of the US trade balance at a horizon of 20 quarters. By contrast, shocks to the real exchange rate have been much less relevant, explaining less than 7% and exerting a more temporary effect on the US trade balance. Our findings suggest that sizeable exchange rate movements may not necessarily be a key element of an adjustment of today's large current account imbalances, and that in particular relative global asset price changes could be a more potent source of adjustment.

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