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Programme
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Monday 30 March
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12:00 - 13:00
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Registration and Lunch
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Session I - Learning
Chair: Günter Coenen (ECB)
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13:00 - 14:30
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Estimating a Medium-scale DSGE Model with Expectations Based on Small Forecasting Models
Sergey Slobodyan (CERGE-EI)
*Rafael Wouters (Banque Nationale de Belgique)
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Discussant:
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Peter Tillmann (University of Bonn)
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Learning about Risk and Return: a Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes
*William A. Branch (University of California - Irvine)
George W. Evans (University of Oregon)
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Discussant:
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Klaus Adam (Mannheim University and European Central Bank)
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14:30 - 15:00
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Break
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Session II - The Yield Curve
Chair: Günter Coenen (ECB)
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15:00 - 16:30
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Non-Nested Information Sets and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
*Kristoffer Nimark (CREI)
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Discussant:
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Jérôme Henry (ECB)
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The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time
Menzie David Chinn (University of Winsconsin, Madison and NBER)
*Kavan Kucko (Federal Reserve Board)
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Discussant:
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Jagjit S. Chadha (University of Cambridge)
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16:30 - 17:00
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Break
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Session III - Forecasting and Information
Chair: Frank Smets (ECB)
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17.00 - 19.00
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What Questions are Staff and FOMC Forecasts Supposed to Answer?
*Martin Ellison (Oxford University)
Thomas Sargent (New York University and NBER)
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Discussant:
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James Bullard (FED St Louis)
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Nowcasting, Business Cycle Dating and the Interpretation of New Information when Real Time Data are Available
*Kevin Lee (University of Leicester)
Nilss Olekalns (Univeristy of Melbourne)
Kalvinder Shilds (Univeristy of Melbourne)
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Discussant:
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Vincent Labhard (ECB)
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Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: The Role of Imperfect Information and Real Time Data
*Stefano Neri (Banca d'Italia)
Tiziano Ropele (Banca d'Italia)
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Discussant:
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Vladislav Damjanovic (University of St Andrews)
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Tuesday 31 March
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Session IV - Business Cycle Dating
Chair: Andrew Scott (LBS and CEPR)
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9:00 - 10:30
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Identification of Slowdowns and Accelerations for the Euro Area Economy
Olivier Darne' (Banque de France and Universite' Paris X - Nanterre)
*Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France)
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Discussant:
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Don Harding (Latrobe University)
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A System for Dating and Detecting Turning Points in the Euro Area
Jaques Anas
Monica Billio
Laurent Ferrara (Banque de France)
*Gian Luigi Mazzi (EUROSTAT)
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Discussant:
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TBC
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10:30 - 11:00
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Break
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11:00 - 13:00
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Session V - PANEL
Chair: Andrew Scott (LBS and CEPR)
James Bullard (FED St Louis)
Bob Hall (Stanford University)
Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School)
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13:00 - 14:30
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Lunch
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Session VI - Uncertainty and the Business Cycle
Chair: Huw Pill (ECB)
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14.30 - 16:00
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Really Uncertain Business Cycles
Nicholas Bloom
*Max Floetotto (Stanford University)
Nir Jaimovich
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Discussant:
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Frank Smets (ECB and CEPR)
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Learning and the Great Moderation
James Bullard (FED ST. Louis)
*Aarti Singh (University of Sydney)
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Discussant:
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Michael McMahon (LSE)
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Organizer:
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Andrew Scott (London Business School and CEPR)
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