Needed: A Real Time Database for the Euro-Area

Needed: A Real Time Database for the Euro-Area

Brussels, 13-14 June 2005
Hosted by the National Bank of Belgium

Organizers: Domenico Giannone (ECARES-ULB), Jerome Henry (European Central Bank), and Rafael Wouters (NBB)

Monday 13 June
10.00-11.00	Welcome Coffee
Session 1:	Review of the Literature
11.00-11.20	The Research Frontier *Dean Croushore (University of Richmond)
Session 2:	News
11.20-11.40	Where are we now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro-Economy *Martin D. D. Evans (Georgetown University)
11.40-12.00	Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases *Domenico Giannone (Université Libre de Bruxelles) Lucrezia Reichlin (European Central Bank, Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR) Dave Small (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
12.00-12.15	Discussant Athanasios Orphanides (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and CEPR)
12.15-12.30	Discussant Nigel Pain (OECD)
12.30-12.45	General Discussion
12.45-14.00	Lunch
Session 3:	Available Real-Time Databases and Applications
14.00-14.15	Revisions of Quarterly National Accounts and Real-Time Assessment of GDP Daniel Grenouilleau (European Commission)
14.15-14.30	An Example of a Real-Time Database for the Euro Area Domenico Giannone (Université Libre de Bruxelles) Jérôme Henry (European Central Bank) Magdalena Lalik (European Central Bank)
14.30-14.45	Building a Real-Time Database for GDP(E) Colin Ellis (Bank of England)
14.45-15.00	Building a Real-Time Database for Germany Thomas Knetsch (Deutsche Bundesbank)
15.00-15.15	Revisions to Quarterly GDP Estimates: A View from the OECD Database Tommaso Di Fonzo (OECD and Università degli Studi di Padova) *Richard McKenzie (OECD)
15.15-15.30	On the Predictability of GDP Data Revisions in the Netherlands Ard Den Reijer (De Nederlandsche Bank)
15.30-15.45	Analyzing the Quality of Selected Finnish Macro Series Samu Kurri (Bank of Finland)
15.45-16.15	General Discussion
16.00-16.15	Coffee
Session 4:	RTDB EABCN Project
16.15-16.30	Survey and General Results Domenico Giannone (Université Libre de Bruxelles) Jérôme Henry (European Central Bank)
16.30-17.30	Roundtable on Data Availability and Data Collection
17.30-18.15	General discussion on the next steps
Dinner	Time and Venue TBC
Tuesday 14 June
Session 1:	Forecast and Real-Time Information 1
09.00-09.30	Welcome Coffee
09.30-09.50	Quality of OECD and IMF Forecasts: Some Implications for Decision-Making *Heinz Glück (Öesterreichische Nationalbank) Stefan Schleicher (University of Graz)
09.50-10.05	Discussant Antoni Espasa (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
10.05-10.25	Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth: An Assessment of Real-Time Performance based on Vintage Data *Marie Diron (European Central Bank)
10.25-10.40	Discussant Saverio Simonelli (Università di Napoli)
10.40-10.55	General Discussion
10.55-11.10	Coffee
Session 2:	Forecast and Real-Time Information II
11.10-11.30	Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed from 1996 to 2003 *Robert J. Tetlow (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)
11.30-11.45	Discussant Robert Kollman (University of Paris XII and CEPR)
11.45-12.05	The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time Athanasios Orphanides (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and CEPR) Simon van Norden (Ecoles des HEC)
12.05-12.20	Discussant Vincent Labhard (Bank of England)
12.20-12.35	General Discussion
12.35-14.00	Lunch
Session 3:	Properties of Data Revisions
14.00-14.20	Typical Procedures of Real-Time Short-Run Analyses and their Statistical Foundations: Are the Practitioners right? *Roberto Golinelli (Università di Bologna) Giuseppe Parigi (Banca d'Italia)
14.20-14.45	Data Revisions are not Well-Behaved Boragan Aruoba (University of Maryland)
14.45-15.00	Discussant 1 Sumru Altug (Koç University and CEPR)
15.00-15.15	Discussant 2 Gonzalo Camba-Mendez (European Central Bank)
15.15-15.30	General Discussion
15.30-16.00	Coffee Break
16.30-18.00	Joint BNB Seminar Robust Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge *Athanasios Orphanides (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and CEPR) John C. Williams (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) on Learning and Policy

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