CEPR's EuroCOIN points to a moderate improvement in growth prospects in June. This signal comes after the prolonged period of decline of the indicator started at the beginning of 2007, during which euro area growth lost momentum with respect to the peaks reached in 2006. Overall the indicator indicates an underlying growth rate for Euro area GDP close to potential, but still below the pace reached in the second semester of 2006. The last reading, if confirmed in the future releases, signals a slowly improving outlook for the third quarter.

EuroCOIN still points to an annual growth rate above 2% for euro area GDP (free of short run variation).

With the current update, revisions of previously published data have been negligible. The overall indicator weights signals coming from different macroeconomics variables. Positive signals stem mainly from financial and labour market variables, while surveys and industrial production are still slightly negative.

Following the current release, the EuroCOIN updates will be suspended for one month and there will be no press release for August 2007. The new version of EuroCOIN will be launched in London on September 20th (further details to be announced). Regular monthly updates of the new EuroCOIN will resume from the end of September.