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Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee In 2002 CEPR established a Business Cycle Dating Committee for the euro area. The Committee’s mission is to establish the chronology of the euro area business cycle, by identifying the recessions and expansions of the 11 original euro area member countries from 1970 to 1998, and of the euro area as a whole since 1999. The Committee has identified four complete cyclical episodes since 1970, with peaks and troughs dated as follows:
Table 1. Peaks and Troughs
Table 2. Recessions and Expansions
Periods of recession are indicated in grey, and periods of expansion in white in this figure. The Committee concluded on 15 November 2012 that economic activity in the euro area peaked in the third quarter of 2011 and that the euro area had been in recession since then. The third quarter of 2011 marked the end of an expansion that began in the second quarter of 2009 and lasted 10 quarters. Although output increased 4.03 per cent from trough to peak, this was not enough to bring euro-area GDP back to its pre-financial crisis level: at the end of the expansion in 2011Q3, GDP was about 2% below its previous 2008Q1 peak. You can read the Press Release here and the Findings here. Previous decisions of the Committee may be found here.
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