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Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee

The euro area since 2001


Figure 10 compares euro GDP in recent years with the 1980s recession by normalizing GDP in 2001q1 and euro GDP in 1980q1 (beginning of the 1980s recession) to 1.

Figure 10

Qualitatively, there are some resemblances between the behaviour of GDP now and then, although no sharp fall has been recorded in the recent period, nor have we seen recently more than a single quarter's decline in sequence. And unlike the 1980s episode, employment is not declining. Figures 11, 12, and 13 provide GDP information about France, Germany and Italy.

Figure 11

Figure 12

Figure 13

Based on currently available data, our current judgment is therefore that the euro area has been experiencing a prolonged pause in the growth of economic activity, rather than a full-fledged recession as we have defined it. The picture may of course change as revised GDP statistics appear.

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The CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee
 

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