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The euro area since 2001
The role of the Committee is to establish the chronology of recessions and expansions, not to forecast, nor even to characterize the current conjuncture. This means that it may be necessary to wait until well after the event to declare a peak or trough in economic activity. The recent period is a case in which caution is clearly required.
Euro area GDP has slowed down since the first quarter of 2001. A weak resurgence of positive growth at the beginning of 2002 seems to have come to a new halt. Employment has grown somewhat, while industrial production, after having fallen sharply in 2001, shows weak signs of recovery (see Figures 7, 8 and 9). Investment has been declining for more than two years, but government consumption rose 2.2% in 2001 and 2.7% in 2002 (ECB Statistics Pocketbook, September 2003).
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