Announcements

4 October 2010: The Committee determined that a trough in economic activity occurred in the second quarter of 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in the first quarter of 2008. The recession lasted 5 quarters or 15 months. The total decline in output from peak to trough is 5.5 percent. Identifying the month of the trough is more difficult. The Committee found a clear trough in industrial production in April 2009. Sales data show a more erratic picture, and unemployment kept rising (this is not unusual at the end of recessions). Given the clear trough of industrial production the Committee declared April 2009 to mark the end of the recession, which began in January 2008 and lasted 15 months. You can read the Committee’s announcement here and its Findings here.

31 March 2009: The Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee announced that economic activity in the euro area peaked in the first quarter of 2008. The peak marked the end of an expansion that began in the third quarter of 1993 and lasted 57 quarters. Identifying the month in which activity peaked is more difficult for the euro area, but the Committee’s best judgement is January 2008. You can read the Findings here and the press release here.

22 September 2003: The Committee issued its first set of findings. It determined that three recessions took place over the period 1970 to 1998 and identified a “growth pause” in 2003. You can read the findings here. The Committee also issued a press release to accompany its findings. You can read the press release in English, French and German.