DP6524 Growth, Volatility and Political Instability: Non-Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000

Author(s): Nauro F. Campos , Menelaos Karanasos

Publication Date: October 2007

Keyword(s): economic growth , political instability , power-ARCH , volatility

JEL(s): C14 , D72 , E23 , O40

Programme Areas: Public Policy

Link to this Page: www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP6524.asp

What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual time series data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. We show that while assassinations and strikes (what we call “informal” political instability) have a direct negative effect on economic growth, “formal” political instability (constitutional and legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the idea that while the effects of “formal” instability are stronger in the long-run, those of “informal” instability are stronger in the short-run.