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Indicator
provides further evidence of gradual recovery in euro area economy
The latest developments within the
euro area economy according to €COIN, the monthly coincident index of
the euro area business cycle released on the 28th of each
month by CEPR
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The
rate of economic growth in the euro area continued to rise in
January reinforcing the positive signal given by €COIN for
December 2001.
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Firmer
signs of growth – In common with the
figure for December 2001, the rise in the indicator is driven by
the survey data on consumer and business expectations, financial
variables (such as interest rates) and some labour market
variables. The industrial production component of the indicator
has continued to fall in January 2002 though less than in December
2001.
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Between
December 2000 and November 2001 €COIN fell and become
negative in September 2001 for the first time since the end of
1995. In December 2001 the indicator showed an upturn, which is
now confirmed by the figure for January 2002. However, despite two
consecutive months of positive signals the value of the indicator
has not yet risen above zero in 2002.
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In
August 2001, there were already signs that economic activity had
levelled off after falling throughout the first half of 2001. The
effects of September 11th led to a sharp fall in euro area growth
in the months following the attack, prolonging the recession and
delaying the first indications of positive growth until December.
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For
the period since October, the indicator is based on partial and
preliminary data and so must be interpreted with caution. The
latest figure, for January 2002, is based on a limited dataset and
must be interpreted with particular caution. It should be noted
that the revision for December, November, and October, due to
arrival of new data, is very small.
Notes for Editors:
CEPR
is a network of over 550 Research Fellows based throughout Europe, who
collaborate through the Centre in research and its dissemination. CEPR
helps its Research Fellows to develop projects, obtain their funding,
administer them and disseminate their results. The Centre’s research
ranges from open economy macroeconomics to trade policy, from the
economic transformation of Central and Eastern Europe to regionalism in
the world economy.
Who produces the Indicator? EuroCOIN
is published on the 28th of each month by CEPR and
constructed by a team of academic researchers associated with
CEPR. The team comprises: Filippo
Altissimo (Banca d'Italia and
CEPR), Antonio Bassanetti (Banca d'Italia),Riccardo Christadoro (Banca
d'Italia), Mario
Forni (Universita di Modena and
CEPR), Marc Hellin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Marco Lippi
(Universita di Roma), Lucrezia
Reichlin (ECARES, Universite
Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR), Giovanni Veronese (Banca d'Italia)
Contact Information:
For interview requests and further information about CEPR please contact CEPR Press Officer Robbie
Lonie, Tel: (44 020) 7878 2918, Mobile: 07740519225 or email
rlonie@cepr.org
For more information:
http://www.cepr.org/data/eurocoin
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