EuroCOIN: A Real Time Cyclical Indicator for the Euro Area

Attenuation in economic expansion continues into May

Thursday 21 June 2007

The latest value of the EuroCOIN™ indicator released by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) shows:

CEPR's EuroCOIN update for May points to a further attenuation in the pace of economic expansion, confirming the signals of the last few months. While the underlying pace of recovery is still sustained, economic activity is not foreseen to accelerate in the near future.

EuroCOIN still points to an annual growth rate above 2% for euro area GDP (free of short run variation).

With the current update, revisions of previously published data have been negligible. The overall indicator weights signals coming from different macroeconomics variables. Positive signals stem mainly from industrial production and survey variables.

EuroCOIN figures from February 2007 are based on incomplete data and may be subject to revision. The next EuroCOIN will be released on July 25

Quarterly changes in the cyclical component of euro area GDP measured in percentage points

Month	EuroCOIN™
May 2006	0.591
June 2006	0.637
July 2006	0.664
August 2006	0.660
September 2006	0.642
October 2006	0.615
November 2005	0.614
December 2006	0.640
January 2007	0.633
February 2007	0.597
March 2007	0.560
April 2007	0.530
May 2007	0.509

Who produces the Indicator? EuroCOIN is produced monthly by CEPR and constructed by a team of academic researchers associated with CEPR. The members of the EuroCOIN team are: Filippo Altissimo (Banca d'Italia and CEPR), Antonio Bassanetti (Banca d'Italia), Riccardo Christadoro (Banca d'Italia), Mario Forni (Universita di Modena and CEPR), Marc Hallin (ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles), Marco Lippi (Universita di Roma), Giovanni Veronese (Banca d'Italia).
Lucrezia Reichlin played a key role in the construction of the indicator while Co-Director of the CEPR International Macroeconomics Programme. After joining the European Central Bank in March 2005 as Director General Research, she relinquished her role as leader of the EuroCOIN team, and plays no role in the preparation of the indicator.
For more information on EuroCOIN: http://www.cepr.org/data/eurocoin

Contact Information:
For interview requests and further information about CEPR please contact CEPR Press and Publications Manager Anil Shamdasani, Tel: +44 (0)20 7878 2909, email ashamdasani@cepr.org .

The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR): CEPR was founded in 1983, with the belief that policy decisions should be informed by sound economic analysis, based on fundamental theory. CEPR’s network of nearly 700 affiliated researchers, comprising the top economists in Europe and beyond, collaborate through the Centre to conduct research on issues affecting the European economy. CEPR secures and administers funding grants for researcher projects, and disseminates their results. The Centre’s wide-ranging research includes open economy macroeconomics, international trade, financial economics, labour economics, industrial organization, public policy, and economic institutions.
Please visit our website for additional information: http://www.cepr.org

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