Study finds that those who would benefit most from EU membership tend to vote against it

CEPR Discussion Paper No.4273 - 'Who is in Favour of Enlargement? Determinants of Support for EU Membership in the Candidate Countries Referenda '

Authors: Orla Doyle (Trinity College Dublin) and Jan Fidrmuc (ECARES, Free University of Brussels and CEPR)

February 2004

It seems indisputable that the enlargement of the European Union will be vastly beneficial for the ten new member countries from Central and Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean. Yet, when nine prospective entrants held referenda on accession during the course of 2003, it became apparent that EU membership was not an easy sell. While all referenda eventually resulted in the approval of accession, this positive outcome came against a background of low participation rates. This shows that, despite the final outcome, support for EU membership is not universally shared in the new member countries.

The authors of CEPR Discussion Paper No.4273 analyse support for EU membership as expressed in voting patterns in the candidate countries' referenda on EU membership, using regional referendum results and individual survey data on voting intentions. The authors argue that accession will affect the citizens of the new member countries in two ways: though efficiency gains and new economic opportunities arising from accession to the European Single Market, and by being included in the EU-wide system of redistribution via Structural and Cohesion Funds and the Common Agricultural Policy.

The study finds that favourable individual and regional characteristics are positively associated with support for accession and voter participation. In particular, those with high education (or still in school), white-collar occupations, high income, young age and living in urban areas are more likely to participate in the accession referenda and vote in favour of EU membership. Similarly, regions with favourable economic conditions (low unemployment and high wages) display greater turnout, though not great support. In contrast, surprisingly, those who should benefit from future EU transfers: the elderly, blue-collar workers, the less educated, those with repeated history of unemployment, those living in rural areas and also those living in underdeveloped or agricultural regions, are less likely to vote and/or support EU membership. The authors argue that voters in the candidate countries assign greater weight on future benefits from liberalization and integration in the EU than on potential gains through redistribution.

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