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Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee

In 2002 CEPR established a Business Cycle Dating Committee for the euro area. The Committee’s mission is to establish the chronology of the euro area business cycle, by identifying the recessions and expansions of the 11 original euro area member countries from 1970 to 1998, and of the euro area as a whole since 1999.

The Committee has identified four cyclical episodes since 1970, with peaks and troughs dated as follows:

Table 1. Chronology of euro area business cycles
PEAK TROUGH
1974q31975q1
1980q11982q3
1992q11993q3
2008q12009q2

Thus the Committee has identified three recessions:

  • 1974q3 to 1975q1
  • 1980q1 to 1982q3
  • 1992q1 to 1993q3
  • 2008q1 to 2009q2

More information on these episodes can be found here.

The Committee concluded that the euro area experienced a prolonged pause in the growth of economic activity rather than a full-fledged recession in 2003q1 and 2003q2. More information on this episode can be found here

The Committee concluded on 31 March 2009 that economic activity in the euro area peaked in the first quarter of 2008. The peak marked the end of an expansion that began in the third quarter of 1993 and lasted 57 quarters. Identifying the month in which activity peaked is more difficult for the euro area, but the Committee’s best judgement is January 2008. More information on this episode can be found here.

The Committee determined that a trough in economic activity occurred in the second quarter of 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in the first quarter of 2008. The recession lasted 5 quarters or 15 months. The total decline in output from peak to trough is 5.5 percent. Identifying the month of the trough is more difficult. The Committee found a clear trough in industrial production in April 2009. Sales data show a more erratic picture, and unemployment kept rising (this is not unusual at the end of recessions). Given the clear trough of industrial production the Committee declared April 2009 to mark the end of the recession, which began in January 2008 and lasted 15 months. You can read the Committee’s announcement here and its Findings here.



The Committee

Methodology

Data Sources

FAQs


Announcements

1970 to 1998

2003

2008

2010

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